Is Lady Gaga 2.56 Times More Popular Than Justin Bieber?

That’s what industry buzz about Fame implies.

While Gaga and executives declined to comment on projected sales, industry sources estimated that the scent would achieve net sales globally of $100 million in its first year on counter, with at least 30 percent expected to come from U.S. sales.

The Bieb’s women’s fragrance did $39 million last year at retail. Thus the title question.

Since we’re doing the math, consider these tidbits:

While executives declined to comment on advertising and promotional spending, industry sources estimated the warchest at about $30 million globally in the scent’s first year.

and

While Coty declined comment on Gaga’s compensation, industry sources estimated that Gaga has been guaranteed a minimum of $15 million in royalties in a three- to five-year deal.

Now, using only your pencil, calculate Coty’s net sales if Fame sells $100 million, as predicted.

Next, calculate Coty’s net sales if Fame sells only a Bieberesque $39 million. Check your work. Is it possible to have negative net? You betcha.

Julie Naughton at WWD has the new Lady Gaga Fame promo photo (above). The comment section is not kind.

Our favorite quote-o-matic CEO, Bernd Beetz, issues this magnificent non sequitur:

“Absolutely everything about this launch is innovative, from the bottle, to the juice, to the lady herself . . . She’s zeitgeist in a bottle.”

Wha? Juice is to innovative as zeitgeist is to bottle? No, wait. Juice is to bottle as zeitgeist is to innovative? Can we get more time to work on this one?

Steve Mormoris, Coty Beauty’s SVP Global Marketing, waxes so lyrical about the Gaga scent that he becomes almost incoherent:

The juice’s structure is also unusual, Mormoris said. “It’s unique because it’s not pyramidal with a top, middle and bottom note,” he said. “It has a trampoline structure — notes are rising at different rates that are quite random. Some accords will come out if you rub it, other accords will come out later. It has random propulsion and doesn’t have a classic linear drydown. We call it push-pull, and it will smell different on different people. There is a different volatility for different notes, and they’re of differing strengths. They work together harmoniously, but then they undergo metamorphosis on the skin, so you’re constantly surprised.”

So . . . the notes of Fame emerge at random, yet they work together harmoniously. The structure of Fame is not pyramidal or linear . . . it’s up-down like a trampoline, but also push-pull.

It’s sort of like zeitgeist in a bottle.